Choose the Right "Wave"

Timing is everything.  There may very well be a right time and a wrong time to start farming, transition to a new crop, to get certified, to diversify or expand.  There may also be opportune times to exit or scale back. 

The ups and downs or agriculture are rarely as significant as the stock market or a dot.com company, but knowing the over all conditions, directions and competitors can influence your success.  Being in the right place at the right time can be the difference between success and failure. 

The best analogy is of a surfer.  You want to wait and pick the best wave.  Not all waves are the same.  Some are small and won’t give you the momentum you need.  Some waves are too big, too powerful and too erratic for your skills.  A wave may look promising, but may have unintended consequences if the tide is going out.   

Picking the right moment is critical if you looking to build a business based on a long term trend or a short term fad.  Fads may present excellent short term opportunities (especially if you time your exit well), just ask the early beanie baby entrepreneurs.  A trend however may build slower, but can have durability.  The Atkins diet is often described as a fad, where healthy eating is a trend.

For more information in Fads vs. Trends see
http://www.trendwatching.com/briefing/

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